As General Election day looms and campaign trails heat up across the country, voters in Warrington are preparing to head to the polls, this time under new constituency boundaries.
Following the Boundary Review of 2023, the voting landscape across Warrington looks different to previous elections. Roughly 10.8 percent of Warrington South’s electorate has been swallowed up by Tatton, with Lymm being the largest area in this patch to change constituency. Warrington North remains largely the same, with only 0.2% of the electorate, an area around the Westbrook Centre, falling within the new Warrington South borders.
A total of 13 candidates have been announced across the two constituencies, seven in Warrington North and six in Warrington South. The Conservatives, Labour, the Liberal Democrats, Reform UK and the Green Party have all put forward candidates in both constituencies, with the Social Democratic Party also in the running in Warrington North.
There are also two independent candidates, one in each constituency respectively.
The town, which is governed at a local level by Labour-led Warrington Council, tells a tale of two halves when it comes to its election history and demographics.
Since 1983, when the two constituencies were first established, Warrington North has been a Labour stronghold and has never seen an MP from another party. Warrington South, however, serves up a different landscape, with Tory representative Andy Carter being the most recently successful MP. Although the seat has switched back and forth between Labour and the Tories over the past 41 years, there have been a total of four Conservative MPs and three Labour MPs with the Tories holding the seat for 21 years to Labour’s 20.
With the borough largely split into two, bar the exception of Lymm, the two constituencies do have their differences which could be instrumental when voters take to the polls.
Warrington South, with a population of 101,700, has a low level of deprivation and includes some of the most affluent areas in the borough, including Stockton Heath, Thelwall, Appleton, Walton and Stretton.
The constituency also includes the Penketh and Sankey areas.
According to the Office for National Statistics ONS), deprivation levels fall well below the national average, with 54.6 percent of the population classed as not deprived in any way compared to 48.4 percent across the UK.
Warrington North is a constituency largely unchanged since the Boundary Review. With a population of 96,600 people, the area covers areas such as Burtonwood, Woolston, Croft, Padgate and Birchwood.
Deprivation levels here are slightly higher than the national average, with 47.8 percent of households classed as not deprived in any way, compared to 48.4 percent at UK level.
In ONS data, constituencies differ slightly in terms of socio-economic status, with a higher percentage of Warrington South residents in higher managerial or professional roles compared to in Warrington North (15.6 percent and 11.4 percent respectively.)
In terms of health, Warrington North has slightly poorer outcomes compared with its southern counterpart, with 47.3 percent of residents in very good health, which is lower than the national average of 48.5 percent.
Warrington South, on the other hand, sees 51.8 percent of its residents fall within this category.
The vast majority of people in both constituencies are white, according to the ONS, with 92.4 per cent coming under this category in Warrington South and 94.5 percent in Warrington North.
Asian people make up a higher percentage in Warrington South (4.3 percent) than its northern neighbour, where only 2.4 percent of residents are Asian. Both constituencies also fall far below the national average for their proportion of Black, African or Caribbean residents with 0.8 percent compared to the nation’s 4.2 percent.
Warrington South candidates
Janet Balfe - Reform UK
Janet Balfe has been announced as the candidate for Reform UK in Warrington South as Nigel Farage’s nationalist party closes in on the Tory votership - according to the most recent polls.
Previously standing as a Parliamentary candidate for Halton in 2019, Ms Balfe has been with Reform UK since its conception as the Brexit Party the year prior.
Reform UK’s policies designed to ‘reclaim Britain’ include various strategies from handing out vouchers for private healthcare to waiting NHS patients to scrapping the previous Government’s net zero plan. The party also pledges to freeze ‘non-essential’ migration to the UK as well as abolish the Home Office.
Andy Carter - Conservative Party
Andy Carter, who held the seat from 2019 until Parliament was dissolved at the end of last month, will run again on July 4.
The Conservative candidate said he originally hadn’t planned to stand at this election, but reconsidered following ‘calls from constituents’.
If re-elected, Mr Carter says he will be campaigning for better healthcare facilities in the town as well as more ‘visible policing’. Local transport has also made his list of campaign priorities, with plans to cut congestion across Warrington to make travel ‘easier and cheaper’ for residents. In line with the party’s policies - the Lymm resident says that national security, energy security and food security are also priorities.
Steph Davies - Green Party
Steph Davies, the Green Party’s candidate for Warrington South has pledged to take a ‘different approach’ to politics in the town. According to the longstanding member, priorities include holding the council to account on its climate emergency action plan and increasing scrutiny on building developments planned for greenbelt sites.
Ms Davies has also committed to taking ‘stronger action’ on flytipping and litter offences with a particular focus on ensuring private landowners are held accountable for these actions.
Graham Gowland - Liberal Democrats
The Liberal Democrats have announced Graham Gowland as their candidate for Warrington South. Graham’s main focus from the LibDem manifesto is their plans to integrate the Care, NHS and Public Health systems – this stems partly from his background as a voluntary Ambulance service responder, where he says he has experienced real issues with the current system, as well as other life experience.
The Lymm resident has served as both a parish and borough councillor, and wants to fix the disconnect people feel with politics. He pledges to work for more affordable housing and is also keen on environmental issues, having campaigned over the raw sewage released into local rivers, and backs the manifesto pledge to turn water companies into Public Benefit companies.
Sarah Hall - Labour Party
Sarah Hall for the Labour party is also hoping to win voters over with policies focusing on Warrington’s economic stability. Having worked at Warrington Council since 2016, one of her priorities is the cost of living crisis and she has pledged to work on cutting household bills for those in her constituency.
Healthcare also sits as a high priority, with the Labour candidate saying that the borough is in ‘desperate need’ of a new hospital.
Graeme Kelly - Social Democratic Party
Graeme Kelly is set to stand for the Social Democratic Party, whose manifesto entitled ‘Homecoming’ was released on June 10. Some of the main policies include increasing the National Living wage, raising the UK’s nuclear energy contribution to the country’s electricity mix from 12 percent to 40 percent by 2035 and constructing 100,000 social homes a year.
On the subject of immigration, the party pledges to withdraw from the 1951 Refugee Convention and the European Convention on Human Rights. It also proposes to cut student visas by 50 percent to approximately 250,000 per year.
Edward Peter Willett - Independent
Edward Peter Willett, a Warrington teacher, is running as an independent candidate pledging to put the needs of Warrington South ‘first’ due to the freedom from party politics.
The British Army veteran, who has previously been deployed to Northern Ireland, Belize and Bosnia, has addressed issues of healthcare, education, community safety and youth services - among others - in his manifesto.
Willett is promising voters he will ‘champion funding for local schools and vocational training programmes’ as well as advocating for funding for local youth services such as centres, sports facilities and cultural programmes.
Warrington North candidates
Yasmin Al-Atroshi - Conservative Party
Contesting the seat is Conservative candidate, Yasmin Al-Atroshi, who as a former NHS employee says that her passion lies in ‘improving the lives of her constituents’.
MS Al-Atroshi’s campaign focuses on her time working in healthcare and a pledge to ‘drive reform’ in Warrington. Among these promises is one to get a walk-in centre in the borough, allowing residents access to care ‘when they need it’.
As a former foundation pharmacist-come- project manager, the Tory candidate says her plan is to ‘reform and fix the NHS’.
Other policies include ‘stopping the boats’ and putting an end to Warrington’s asylum dispersal scheme as well as protecting the greenbelt from development and cracking down on crime and anti-social behaviour.
David Crowther - Liberal Democrats
David Crowther will be representing the Lib Dems in the July 4 election. The group’s manifesto has been laid out with a focus on new homes supported by physical infrastructure ‘such as roads built at the same time not afterwards’. The group says that it will focus on finding ‘more transparent ways to generate income and manage risk’ as well as lobbying the Government for more funding to safeguard ‘vital services’.
Charlotte Nichols - Labour Party
As a Labour stronghold, the most recent MP to vacate the Warrington North seat is Charlotte Nichols, who will run again for the party in July.
On the campaign trail, Ms Nichols has been focusing on issues surrounding late night anti-social behaviour in parts of the borough, which she pledges to discuss with police.
Warrington Labour’s manifesto includes launching a new food pantry alongside a personal hygiene and baby bank to support residents with the cost of living crisis.
The party also pledges to establish ‘Warrington Living Rent’ a voluntary accredited scheme which will focus on reducing the cost of rent for residents.
Promises also include enhancing SEND services, protecting the vulnerable with free programmes designed to improve health and wellbeing outcomes and improving leisure centres and green spaces.
Trevor Nicholls - Reform UK
Trevor Nicholls, standing for Reform UK, has lived in Warrington his entire life and says he has seen ‘many changes, not all of them good’ during these years.
Since standing for parliament in 2015 as UKIP’s candidate, Mr Nicholls says he has seen the population double to 210,000 people while the hospital has remained the same.
He has pledged to fight for the ‘much-needed’ hospital and to also put pressure on the council regarding the borough’s ‘mountainous debt’.
Hannah Spencer - Green Party
The Green Party candidate for 2024’s General Election is Hannah Spencer. A new candidate, Ms Spencer is yet to publicly release her political pledges. However, the party’s general manifesto promises to deliver 150,000 affordable homes each year - with solar panels and heat pumps included where appropriate.
There is also a focus on reducing NHS waiting lists as well as guaranteeing access to an NHS dentist and ‘rapid access’ to GPs.
Maddison Wheeldon - Independent
Originally Maddison Wheeldon, who is now running independently, was announced as the party’s selection for Warrington North but stepped down following an alleged racism row over ‘inappropriate’ comments.
Writing on X, formerly Twitter, Ms Wheeldon explained that she ‘no longer had the support of the Green Party’ and was unable to run as their MP candidate.
She added that she had been painted as an ‘anti-Semite’ for her ‘pro-Palestine and international law stance’.
Launching a Crowdfunder page to support her independent campaign, Ms Wheeldon has pledged to push for ‘change and investment’ in Warrington North.
The single mum-of-two has pledged to hold Warrington Council to account for investments and push for policies that make a ‘positive difference to people’s lives’.
Analysis
In the 2019 General Election, Warrington South turned blue with Andy Carter gaining a 45.5 percent share of the votes with a total of 28,187, while his closest opponent, the incumbent Faisal Rashid, took 42.3 percent of the votes with 26,177.
On July 4, the seat is expected to return to Labour, with the party naming it as one of more than 250 ‘battleground’ constituencies. According to Labour List, a 0.0 percent swing is needed for the party to regain control.
The old constituency was previously fairly equally split with five of the 12 wards voting Conservative in the 2019 General Election and the rest Labour.
ElectoralCalculus, which conducts its own polls and gathers demographical data from constituents, has given Labour a 98% chance of winning the seat, with Tories taking up the remaining two per cent.
YouGov also predicts that Labour will regain control in Warrington South, surmising that Sarah Hall will take a share of 54.9 percent, with incumbent Andy Carter expected to only earn 24.4 per cent of the votes.
Reform UK are expected to take 10.8 percent with the Lib Dems and the Green Party predicted at 4.8 and 4.4 percent respectively.
Perhaps easier to predict is Warrington North with both ElectoralCalculus and YouGov predicting a landslide in the Labour stronghold.
Following its most recent poll, YouGov predicts that 54.6 percent of the votes will go to Labour candidate Charlotte Nichols, with only 20.2 percent for the Conservatives.
Reform UK is expected to gain 13.6 percent of the votes with the Lib Dems and Green Party estimated at five and six percent respectively.
In the May local elections, the picture for the Conservatives was bleak, with the party losing all but one seat across the 58 available across Warrington Council. Overtaking the Tories, Lib Dem won 12 seats, becoming the official opposition party to Labour, who won 42.
One of the seats lost by the Tories was Lymm South, which was taken by Lib Dem and now comes under the Tatton constituency.
Whilst many of the candidates have attempted to address the main points of contention for Warrington residents, including education,immigration, the local economy, housing and transport - there has been a particular focus on healthcare.
Amid the pledges from the hopeful contenders, several issues have been reiterated as ‘priority’ for the borough, with many citing healthcare improvements in their campaigns.
Both Sarah Hall for Labour in Warrington South and Trevor Nicholls for Reform UK in Warrington North, have pledged to push for a new borough hospital should they be triumphant on Election Day.
According to Warrington Borough Council, the population stands at roughly 211,580, an increase from 202,200 in the 2011 Census. Despite this increase the hospital has remained on the same site with developments taking place in the past few years. In 2021 the site received a new acute respiratory unit and other additions in 2022 include a same day emergency care centre, an MRI Centre and refurbished outpatients department for children and young people.
However, monthly statistics released by NHS England show that of the 2115 patients admitted to Warrington and Halton Teaching Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust last month, 35 percent waited more than 12 hours from decision to admit to actual admission compared to the national average of 7.5 percent.
A recent report also revealed that Warrington Hospital contains some planks of unsafe reinforced aerated autoclaved concrete (RAAC) after it was previously believed not to. Hospital bosses reassured the public that the post room where the RAAC was found was not used for patient care and had been closed off for the foreseeable future.
In terms of dental care, another topic high on the agenda in this year’s campaigns, Warrington performs better than the national average - with 0.2 dentists per 1,000 people. This is slightly higher than the UK average of 1.93
One of the biggest issues currently faced by the borough of Warrington, and one mentioned by several candidates, is the council’s debt and investment portfolio.
A report published in May 2024 by the Chartered Institute of Public Finance and Accountancy (CIPFA) into the council’s £1.8bn debt recommended that a specialist panel should be instructed to oversee the authority’s portfolio.
Concerns have been raised over recent investments and financial assets which contribute to a large majority of this debt - with loans to companies and social landlords cited as one of the main issues.
Other decisions under scrutiny include the authority’s 33 per cent stake in a ‘challenger bank’ which was bought for £30.9 million in 2017 and valued at only £6.7 million last year.
The council has also previously bought a 50 per cent stake in supplier Together Energy, which went into administration in 2022.
Mr Nicholls for Reform UK, independent candidate Ms Wheeldon and the Warrington Lib Dems have cited holding the council to account over financial decisions as one of their priority policies.
While immigration remains a heavily debated issue at national level, Yasmin Al-Atroshi has been the most outspoken candidate regarding Warrington’s position, pledging to put an end to the town’s asylum dispersal scheme.
The issue of support for asylum seekers is one that often proves controversial among the wider population. Figures released this month (June) reveal that the borough was supporting 289 asylum seekers in the period up to March 2024, which is up from 267 in December last year.
Reform UK also takes a hard stance on immigration, with its manifesto ‘our contract to you’ citing that the party will move to ‘securely detain’ all asylum seekers should its campaign be successful on July 4.
After a difficult few years, with inflation peaking at 11 percent in October 2022, several of Warrington’s candidates are pledging to prioritise helping communities through the cost of living crisis.
Although the borough shows a varying picture of deprivation, according to End Child Poverty around a quarter (25.6%) of children in the borough are living below the breadline.
Housing remains a campaign highlight for some with candidates pledging to focus on social and affordable housing.
Figures from the start of the year released by Torus Housing Group revealed that 7,360 applicants are currently waiting for social housing in the borough, revealing the importance of this issue in the locality.
It is now down to the candidates to decide which issues they feel are most pertinent to them and to Warrington and for the people to vote with their feet and turn up to the polls on July 4 to choose who they feel can best represent them in Westminster.
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