Swinging pendulum of Hyndburn likely key indicator of general election result

In the sixth Parliamentary elections since the turn of the century, Hyndburn has returned Conservative and Labour MPs three times each. For a year, it looked as though former MP Graham Jones would stand again against his replacement Sara Britcliffe. However,  he was suspended by the party for comments made about Israel and replaced at the 11th hour by Sarah Smith.

The seat has swung back and forth between the two main parties and Labour will hope to see the pendulum move their way again. Like much of East Lancashire, the constituency is a mixture of rural space and former industrial town. Accrington in particular has a proud history of construction and cotton manufacturing, as well as playing a vital role in World War I efforts, but many feel the town has become neglected and left behind.

Hyndburn has above average levels of deprivation and long-term unemployment, along with a lower than average proportion of people in high-earning jobs. The constituency voted in favour of Brexit by a margin of 65:35.

In Haslingden, lots of residents believe they should instead be part of Rossendale but that change did not happen in the recent redrawing of constituency boundaries. As such, it remains part of the Hyndburn seat

Candidates - Hyndburn & Haslingden

Sara Britcliffe - Conservatives

Sara Britcliffe has been Hyndburn and Haslingden MP since 2019 when a huge Labour to Conservative swing saw her elected with a majority of almost 3,000. Since then she has been in roles including Parliamentary Private Secretary, the party's Vice-Chairman for Youth, and its Deputy Chairman for Campaigning and Candidates.

Britcliffe is campaigning on the basis of funding awarded to the constituency in recent years, her own personal record and her connection with the community she grew up in. 

Shabir Fazal - Green Party

Retired headteacher and former assistant director of education Shabir Fazal OBE became Hyndburn’s only Green Party councillor in May. He believes he can cause another upset this time around and win ahead of the two main parties.

Fazal is standing on a pro-Palestinian platform and has organised coaches to the national peace protests in London as well as speaking at local events in Lancashire. He has done extensive community work and says he wants to see changes in health, education and the cost of living.

Richard John Oakley - Reform UK

Oakley has stood for election to Hyndburn Borough Council on four occasions in the last three years, finishing in last place on three occasions and second to last once.

He has lived in the constituency for 30 years and in the 1990s, stood as Conservative candidate in local and county council elections but left the party in the same decade. 

He says the two main parties can longer be trusted, criticising the Tories for “allowing uncontrolled mass migration” and claiming “Labour would bankrupt Britain”.

Sarah Smith - Labour

Sarah Smith is a councillor on Blackpool Council and says her family have long had roots in Hyndburn. She was named as candidate as a replacement for previous MP Graham Jones who has since joined in campaigning for her.

Smith has spent much of her career working as a charity leader, in particular helping children living in poverty. With a three-month-old baby, she also hopes to inspire more women into politics. She has named priorities for Hyndburn including revitalising high streets, reopening youth centres, and  improving sixth form provision and housing.

Beth Waller-Slack - Liberal Democrats

Beth Waller-Slack is standing in her second General Election, having contested Blackburn for the Liberal Democrats in 2019. She has also stood in three local elections in Hyndburn since 2021, finishing last on each occasion. 

Analysis

After Britcliffe reclaimed the constituency for the Tories in 2019, all polling now points to a swing back in the opposite direction. This is so much that YouGov forecasts it not only as a Labour win, but designates it as a “safe” one.

Its projections based on polling of 60,000 people nationally forecast a Labour landslide nationally and a comfortable margin of victory in winning back Hyndburn. YouGov’s modelling forecasts Labour winning with 52% of the vote, more than double the Conservatives’ 24%, with Reform on 13%.

Meanwhile, analysis from the Electoral Calculus suggests Labour has an 95% chance of winning in Hyndburn, compared to the Conservative’s 5%. It is however worth noting that both of these are based on national polling rather than local and those on the ground insist the result will be much closer than the polls suggest.

It’s fair to say in Hyndburn, there is a lot of distrust in the Government and politicians as a whole. Many residents report feeling their area has become forgotten and left to ruin, with crumbling buildings and empty shop units.

Political disillusionment and mistrust hang heavily over the area, with many continuing to doubt that improvements will come even from the awarding of £20m in Levelling Up funding. For any politician, a big challenge is convincing residents they do care and will actually act to tackle issues such as housing, the cost of living, and healthcare.

The polls suggest a big Labour win and it appears those on the ground also believe a change of MP is the most likely outcome. The party recently regained control of the local council, suggesting there is indeed strong support for it locally.

However, campaigners on both sides insist this race is not as foregone as the polling suggests and Britcliffe remains a well known and liked figure locally. She has played on this in her campaigning, positioning herself as the local candidate and pointing to her own work far more than the Government’s actions.

The challenge for Smith is to fight any perception of being an outsider who has been parachuted in. Her connection to the constituency is greater than may first appear and her background of championing and helping those living in poor conditions should also be an asset.

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