Visits to Bury show how crucial town will be in general election outcome

After boundary changes, the constituency of Bury North now consists of Ramsbottom, North Manor, Tottington, Elton, Moorside, Bury East, Bury West (excluding the polling districts of 1GCA and 1GCB), Redvales, Radcliffe North & Ainsworth (excluding the polling district 2LE) and Unsworth (2JE only).

Bury South is now made up of Unsworth (except 2JE), Radcliffe East, Radcliffe North & Ainsworth (2LE only), Radcliffe West, Pilkington Park, Besses, Holyrood, St Marys, Sedgley and Kersal and Broughton (Salford Borough Council). 

Those who are unsure about what polling district they are in can call the elections team on 0161 253 5252 or email [email protected]

Bury North is a marginal seat between Labour and the Tories and has historically been a bellwether constituency, with the seat’s winner tending to win overall power.

The year 2017 proved to be an exception, with a Labour gain through James Frith, although the Conservatives regained the seat through James Daly two years later with a majority of just 105 - making it the most marginal constituency in Britain. 

Neighbouring Bury South is another marginal seat, with the Tories winning a majority of 402 in 2019 through Christian Wakeford, who defected to Labour in early 2022. 

That was the Conservatives’ first win since 1992, with Labour winning at the general elections in 1997, 2001, 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2017, when Ivan Lewis represented the seat.

Lewis was suspended from the Labour Party in 2018 after allegations of sexual harassment and stood at the 2019 election as an independent. He ended up withdrawing his candidacy but his name still appeared on ballot papers. He came fifth, behind the Tories, Labour, Liberal Democrats and the Brexit Party, with 1,366 votes.

Bury North candidates

Mark Alcock - Liberal Democrats

A veteran councillor, father and grandfather, Alcock says he has tried his hand at numerous jobs; he has been a milkman, farm worker, wagon driver, cleaner, IT trainer and Sky TV salesman. He says: “I am not a career politician.” 

Shafat Ali - Workers Party of Britain

In a statement on the party’s website, Ali said he is “deeply committed to the principles of social justice, workers’ rights and public ownership”. His statement matches word-for-word that of the party’s Bury South candidate Sameera Ashraf. Under the header ‘Why vote WPB in Bury North?’, two testimonials from “Hoz” and “Alex” are remarkably similar to the ones for Ashraf.

James Daly - Conservative Party

The 44-year-old worked as a defence solicitor before becoming an MP in 2019. He is now deputy chairman of the Conservative Party and could be one of the most senior party members to lose his seat if he is usurped on July 4. He says people should vote for him to “continue delivering for our area”, with key achievements listed as £347m investment in the area, including four new schools, and the saving of Gigg Lane and Margaret Haes Riding School.

Spencer Donnelly - Independent

James Frith - Labour Party

The constituency’s MP from 2017 to 2019, Frith is hoping to win his seat back. The 47-year-old father was CEO and founder of social enterprise All Together. After losing in the 2019 election, he went on to work for Atticus Partners, a political lobbying and PR group that describes him as an “experienced parliamentarian”. In a video posted to his Facebook page, Frith said: “Labour has a fully costed plan to change the direction of our country - economic stability, wealth creation and economic growth for all.”

Anwarul Haq - Independent

A candidate who has told voters he would take a “bullet 4 you” in his promotional material, Haq describes himself as an actor (he played Sharif Nazir in Coronation Street under the name Marc Anwar until he was axed for comments made on Twitter), broadcaster, social activist and charity worker.

Dedicating his campaign to “the children of Palestine and Israel”, a poster for Haq adds: “Palestine will be free. The blood of martyrs of Gaza will give rise to green pastures of freedom and peace. The world will not - should not - forget the crimes of the criminals and their accomplices. No justice, no peace. Palestine will be free. Vote for Palestine, vote for peace. Vote for an independent Bury, vote for Haq, Anwarul Haq.”

Lynda Rosewell - Reform

Little is known publicly about Rosewell. Reform’s key pledges are to cut the NHS waiting list to zero in two years, introduce an income tax exemption for frontline workers, raise the minimum income tax threshold and scrap VAT on energy bills, reduce corporation tax and nationalise utility firms. It also wants to scrap interest on student loans, ban the teaching of gender ideology and critical race theory, freeze “non-essential” migration and leave the European Convention on Human Rights.

Owain Sutton - Green Party

Sutton works in primary education and is a councillor in Trafford. He said he is “driven by a refusal to tolerate unfairness and inequality”, adding that the “inequality of the impacts of climate breakdown cannot be tolerated”.

He said: “The Green Party is essential because it is the only one seeing the connections between environmental and climate issues, economic fairness and social justice. While the chaos, corruption and catastrophe of Conservative rule is likely to come to an end at this election, Labour are offering little different.”

Bury South candidates

Jeff Armstrong - Reform UK

Armstrong says he has worked in the rail industry home and abroad for over 40 years while volunteering for “several” organisations. He says: “I am not a career politician and what you see is what you get. I will always stand up for the rights of everyone. Reform UK gives me and every member the freedom to challenge wrongdoings and the freedom of free speech. I say it as it is -  I am not afraid to speak the truth.”

Sameera Ashraf - Workers Party of Britain

In a statement on the party’s website, Ashraf said they are “deeply committed to the principles of social justice, workers’ rights and public ownership”. Their statement matches word-for-word that of the party’s Bury North candidate Shafat Ali. Under the header ‘Why vote WPB in Bury South?’, two testimonials from “Hoz” and “Alex” are remarkably similar to the ones for Ali.

Michael Elston - Independent

Elston says he “exposed the end-of-life pathway scandal in September 2020” and, during a visit to Ukraine in 2022, “devised the peace plan that is now gathering some momentum regarding the war in Gaza”. He says he wants to “put an end to the public being perpetually financially exploited by gas and electricity companies, water companies, telephone companies, mobile and broadband providers, banks and building societies, insurance companies, bailiffs and the authorities" and to abolish parking fines and bus lane fines.

Stephen Morris - English Democrats

Before becoming general secretary for the Workers of England Union in 2017, Morris says he spent 15 years working for the Metrolink tram network, where for seven years he was Unite branch secretary. On his website, Morris said he wants a “zero-tolerance approach towards political correctness in policing” and he would focus on “pushing for wider community support for people living with mental illness”. He wants to stop any congestion charge for Manchester, building on green belt land and to hold the mayor accountable for the area’s “police service”.

Andrew Page - Liberal Democrats

Dan Ross - Communist Party of Britain

Ross, who has lived in the Bury area for 30 years, said in 2023 the time is “long overdue for a real change in the political landscape of our town”. He said: “We need to put an end to the policies of austerity and the sell-off of our public services. We need to fight for a fairer society, where the needs of the many come before the profits of the few.”

Arnie Saunders - Conservatives

Having worked in Bury South for more than 30 years, as a rabbi at a local synagogue and a chaplain in a care home, Saunders said he is “used to public speaking as well as attending to people’s pastoral needs, particularly when they are at their most vulnerable”. He added: “Being local, I know many constituents personally and know the problems people face in their personal lives. Having the ‘gift of the gab’ will enable me to stand up for Bury South in Parliament. I will ensure Bury South continues to receive ‘levelling-up’ money from Westminster.”

Christian Wakeford - Labour Party

After being elected as a Tory MP in 2019, Wakeford crossed the floor to the opposition in January 2022, saying: “I have reached the conclusion that the best interests of my constituents are served by the programme put forward by Keir Starmer and his party. I care passionately about the people of Bury South and I have concluded that the policies of the Conservative government led by Boris Johnson are doing nothing to help the people of the constituency and indeed are only making the struggles they face on a daily basis worse.” 

Michael Welton - Green Party

Welton, who works in a family business, a music shop in Manchester, said his priorities are “for more social and affordable housing, and insulation to give us warm, affordable homes while reducing our reliance on imported oil and gas”. He says: “The Green Party would put water companies back in public hands and clean our rivers. And we would make it cheap, safe and easy to get around by bus, bike and train - easing our traffic problems, saving us all money and keeping our air clean.”

Analysis

Both Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer have visited Bury North in the run up to the general election, a sign they both see it as a key seat.

A set of notional results compiled by experts from the University of Plymouth - to calculate what would have happened if the 2019 election had taken place using the new constituency boundaries - suggests Labour needs a 1.2% swing to win in Bury North and just 0.94% in Bury South.

Starmer, who has identified Bury North as one of his party’s key targets, is likely well aware of how pivotal this sort of ultra-marginal seat will be to the outcome on July 4. 

The truth is both constituencies will play a crucial role in determining who forms the next government after the votes are counted, and the efforts being put into persuading people living there suggest that even those at the top of the rival parties don’t know which way they will lean.

There is a risk that any prediction could leave one looking foolish. But a betting man would suggest that Labour, given the party’s position as overwhelming favourite to win the election, will do enough to take both seats, especially after Bury North’s Tory MP James Daly was criticised over Christmas for suggesting most children struggling in the town are “products of crap parents”. 

His suggestion that deputy Labour leader Angela Rayner may have given false information about her main residence may also polarise voters, especially after police decided no further action was needed after an investigation into her living arrangements. Rayner said: “We have seen the Conservative party use this playbook before - reporting political opponents to the police during elections to distract from their dire record.”

Given that Bury has one of the country’s largest Jewish populations, while about 10% of its population is Muslim (a figure that has grown from about 6% since 2011), social cohesion, especially in light of the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, has the potential to be a key issue.

Some of the town’s 10,700 Jews reported a rise in antisemitism - including a kosher restaurant being egged - after Israel’s bombardment of Gaza intensified following an attack by Hamas terrorists on October 7 last year, with council leader Eamonn O’Brien saying: “What started as one or two isolated, relatively minor incidents has started to escalate.”

Meanwhile, seven Bury councillors from Muslim backgrounds signed a letter calling on Labour to demand an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, saying: “The message we have been hearing repeatedly … is simple, people just want an end to the bloodshed and the loss of innocent life”. They added: “No nation, no people or community should have to endure collective punishment and the same should be the case for the Palestinian people.”

So people from both the Jewish and Muslim communities will be looking for allies amongst the main parties and could look elsewhere if they don’t feel well supported.

Just look at Rochdale, where George Galloway was elected for the Workers Party of Britain in a landslide victory earlier this year and said his political rivals would “pay a high price” for “enabling, encouraging and covering for the catastrophe” in Gaza.

Galloway, a divisive figure, added: “Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak are two cheeks of the same backside and they both got well and truly spanked … here in Rochdale.”

Whether any friction will cause a major upset in Bury North or Bury South remains unclear but seems unlikely. 

But the conflict isn’t the only issue facing the town, where 32% of children are classed as living in poverty, according to End Child Poverty, and where there is a gap in life expectancy of almost eight years between the richest and poorest areas.

The scale of the debt crisis in Bury was also laid bare last year, when hundreds of people sought help with bills.

Ultimately, after 14 years of rule, it depends on whether people believe the Tory party can give Bury the funding and help it needs to thrive - or if a change of government is needed.