The General Election is only 16 days away, but to a large extent, the make-up of the next Parliament - and the shape of British politics for a generation - will be determined at midnight sharp, tonight. This is because 11.59pm is the last chance you have to register to vote: a quick online process that only takes a minute.
Why? Well, bluntly, it all depends on how many Gen Z and millennials vote in the general election. And as of 2022, only 66 percent of 18–34 year-olds are registered to vote, compared to 96 per cent of individuals aged over 65.
These numbers aren’t mere electoral trivia: the generational divide has never been starker. If Britons in the younger age group turn up at the same rate as baby boomers, the Tories are much more likely to collapse electorally, perhaps even sliding to an ignominious third place behind the Libdems. Never mind Reform becoming the new Tories; the Tories will become Reform. The new dividing line will be drawn between a centre-left government and an even more liberal opposition, with right-wing parties squabbling for breathing room on the margins. More on this below.
If, conversely, younger Britons sit this one out, as many of our peers are threatening to do, the Tories are all too likely to remain the official opposition. The main pressure on Keir Starmer’s government will come from the Right, and from an embittered, toxic Right, at that. The chances of a progressive pivot after the election will diminish further. The debilitating, demotivating stagnation-prone balance between two centrist parties will be reinforced, and the crisis of faith in electoral democracy will grow deeper still.
As things stand, the threat is very real. The 2024 general election is expected by some to see the lowest voter turnout in modern history. One in 5 people have already decided not to bother. Many have lost trust in politicians altogether. Many others, who do want to see the Tories out , seem to believe Labour’s victory is so assured they don’t need to turn up. This is especially apt for younger voters: Alienated by the ever diminishing priority of issues like climate, education and housing, 38 percent of Gen Zs and millennials say they will not be voting in this election at all.
But they are missing the even bigger picture: the chance to turf out the Tories altogether as a reference point even for as cautious a campaigner as Keir Starmer. And nobody can do it except the young voters themselves: Analysis by the Intergenerational Foundation has shown that the younger voters could have a crucial impact on this election, disproportionate to all previous ones.
According to the Foundation, there are thirty-four constituencies where a 10 per cent increase in turnout from eligible young voters is greater than the incumbent MPs 2019 majority. This means that there are thirty-four marginal constituencies where the result may be determined by young voters alone, if they turn up. In scores of other seats, young turnout can swing the vote, in tandem with other generations. Considering how much more progressive younger voter are, the effect on next parliament could be overwhelming.
- Click here to WhatsApp the registration link to friends and family -
This election isn’t a done deal. There are plenty of seats across the country where every vote counts. Best for Britain’s new Get Voting tracker will show you exactly what to do to ensure that your vote has maximum impact, as well as some of the key issues in your local constituencies - so you can decide what matters to you. In some seats, you can vote with your heart. But the first step is registering to vote.
(Z.G. and D.R.)
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