Altrincham & Sale West could shun the Conservatives for first time in over 100 years in general election

An affluent constituency within the leafy suburbs of Greater Manchester, Altrincham and Sale West has long been seen as both a desirable place to live and a safe Conservative stronghold. 

Its 100,000 strong population contains well above average numbers of highly educated people and those in managerial and professional occupations. It also has significantly more home-owners than the national average, with 75% of residents either owning outright or with a mortgage compared to 63% across the country.

Its historic Conservative support is so strong that, even accounting for boundary changes, it has not elected a non-Tory MP for more than 100 years. On the last occasion it did so in 1923, the Liberal Robert Alston lasted barely a year, with another General Election called the following year when the Conservatives reclaimed the seat.

Boundary changes in 1945 saw the Altrincham seat split, with Altrincham and Sale West created. Over the following 28 years, three MPs were elected - all Tories. Another boundary change in 1997 coincided with the election of Sir Graham Brady, the man perhaps best known for chairing the 1922 Committee of backbench Tories which has effectively picked the last two Prime Ministers.

He has won in every election since, with his majorities reaching a high of 13,000 in 2015 before dropping to around half that level in the two votes since. One way or another, change is coming now.  Graham Brady has stepped down and a new representative will be elected for the first time in nearly three decades. 

Candidates

Jane Brophy - Liberal Democrats

Dietician Jane Brophy is a Trafford councillor and former North West Member of European Parliament. She has sat on Trafford for a total of 25 years since 1994, serving on the Trafford Health Scrutiny Committee, the Health and Wellbeing Board and more recently the Accounts and Audit Committee

The party named her one its most committed and conscientious environmental activists. Away from politics, she has also served as a School Governor for Altrincham College, the Willows Primary School, Heyes Lane Primary School and Cloverlea Primary School.

Jane stood in this seat three times, finishing second in 2015 and third in 2015 and 2017.

Oliver Carroll - Conservatives

Oliver Carroll was born and raised in Hale Barns and after studying at Altrincham Grammar School for Boys and the University of Oxford, built a career as an international lawyer and solicitor-advocate.

He has pledged to hold Trafford Council to account, campaign for a new secondary school to increase the number of available places, and protect against any development of Timperley Wedge and Carrington Moss. He has also been campaigning for the reopening of Altrincham’s Minor Injuries Unit.

Geraldine Coggins - Green Party

Trafford councillor and former Green Party Group leader Geraldine Coggins was selected as candidate back in 2022. She stood in Altrincham and Sale West in the last two General Elections, finishing fourth on both occasions.

She has spoken of a desire to push for a fairer society and to protect the environment, along with renationalising water companies to clean rivers and protect the local area. She also wants to make bus, bike and train journeys cheaper and safer to ease traffic problems, save people money and improve air quality.

Faisal Kabir - Workers Party

As well as being Chairman of Greater Manchester of Chattogram Association (GMCA) and secretary of Conservative Friends Of Bangladesh-Manchester, Faisal Kabir also describes himself as a media personality.

His priorities include campaigning for a ceasefire in Palestine and recognition of a Palestinian state; increasing the income tax threshold to £21,200, reducing NHS waiting times, increasing school places, creating affordable homes for first time buyers and improving law and order.

Connor Rand - Labour

Connor Rand was announced as the Labour candidate on May 29, two weeks after the previous selection stood down for personal reasons. He is a former Labour organiser in the East of England and a senior researcher at shopworkers’ union Usdaw.

Paul Swansborough - Reform

Paul has actively been involved in politics since 2004, serving as Redditch councillor between 2014 and 2018. He and his family moved to Trafford in 2020 and he has since stood for council elections on four occasions, the first time under the UKIP banner, and in a Stretford & Urmston Parliamentary By-election.

He works as an electrical lighting engineer and has pledged to oppose VAT on school fees and conserve Carrington Moss and Timperley Wedge from housing developments, while saying his main priority is to hold Trafford Council to account. 

Analysis

Even five years ago it would have seemed incomprehensible that the Conservatives would lose in Altrincham and Sale West, but that is exactly what the polls now suggest. According to YouGov, a first ever Labour win is now considered to be the most likely outcome.

Its projections based on polling of 60,000 people nationally forecast a Labour landslide nationally and a comfortable margin of victory in Brady’s old seat. YouGov’s modelling forecasts Labour winning with 46.1% of the vote, almost 15 point ahead of the Conservatives.

Meanwhile, analysis from the Electoral Calculus suggests Labour has an 87% chance of winning in Altrincham and Sale West, compared to the Conservative’s 13%. It is however worth noting that both of these are based on national polling rather than local.

In May 2001, Tony Blair delivered his infamous speech which explained Labour’s “top priority was, is and always will be education, education, education”. Some 23 years on, it is exactly that issue which dominates much of the political conversation in Altrincham Sale and West.

With a fierce battle for places at the area highly regarded and oversubscribed schools, mistrust over Trafford Council’s plan for managing these, and an influx of wealthy families with young children, the issue is only becoming more fierce.

Candidates have been quick to pledge to tackle the problem, from creating more places and building a new school to attacking Labour’s plan to charge VAT on private school fees. Proving they have a convincing strategy to tackle school places and save children having to leave the area for their education will be vital for candidates wanting votes.

As you may expect in a semi-rural seat, especially one which is so attractive to people wanting to set up their family life, housing and green-belt remain big issues. In particular, any efforts to build big estates on open land are likely to face opposition and there is a divide between candidates who want to encourage development and those wanting to limit it.

Some may say you shouldn’t take too much notice of national polls in local seats but it’s clear there has been a change in this area in recent years. Voters on the street say they have lost enthusiasm for the Conservative party, even if they remain unexcited by the alternatives.

Brady’s majority halved between 2015 and 2017, while the Conservatives controlled Trafford Council as recently as 2018. Since then, that majority has been demolished and the party now has just 10 seats compared to Labour’s 41.

If that shift is mirrored in the parliamentary election, Labour genuinely could win in a traditional Tory seat.

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