Inside the battle for Altrincham and Sale West

It was supposed to be one of Labour’s major gains. A new MP in a seat which the Tories have held for a century.

All the polling suggested that Altrincham and Sale West will turn red when 4 July finally rolls around and the current MP quits after 27 years. But all that could now change.

Cllr Ben Hartley, the man who many believed would win in a firmly Conservative seat, suddenly dropped out of the race last Friday, citing personal reasons. No further details have been publicly released but now the party must decide how it goes about replacing a man who is well respected locally and has been on the local political scene for more than a decade.

Announcing his shock decision via social media, Cllr Hartley said: “It is with sadness that I am announcing my resignation as the parliamentary candidate for Altrincham and Sale West due to personal circumstances.
 
“Being selected as the Labour parliamentary candidate for Altrincham and Sale West has been a great honour. I am extremely proud of the campaign that I have run so far and I would like to thank everyone involved for their support.

“I wish the campaign well and will continue to do all that I can, as both a local member and councillor, to deliver the fresh start that residents of Altrincham and Sale deserve with a Labour MP.”

The legacy and shadow of Sir Graham Brady

When a General Election is finally held in July, Labour is expected to sweep into power after 14 years of opposition. In Altrincham and Sale, an even longer era is coming to an end.

Brady was first elected as its Conservative MP in 1997 and he’s remained in the role ever since. Known across the country as the chair of the 1922 committee of backbench Tories - which has effectively chosen the last three Prime Ministers - he’s continued a legacy of Tories dominating the constituency.

Even accounting for boundary changes, the area has effectively not selected a non-Conservative MP on any occasion since the Liberal Robert Alston won in 1923. That stint proved very short-lived as a General Election was called the following year and the Conservatives reclaimed the seat.

Since then, it’s been a case of the more things change, the more they stay the same. Boundary changes in 1945 saw the Altrincham seat split, with Altrincham and Sale West created. Over the following 28 years, three MPs were elected - all Tories.

In 1997, more changes meant the seat became known as Altrincham and Sale West and as Tony Blair’s New Labour swept to a landslide win, Graham Brady ensured the area remained blue when he became the youngest Conservative MP at the time.

He held onto the seat in each election since, enjoying senior roles such as chief whip, and even in 2019 when his lead was reduced to around 6,150 votes, it seemed unthinkable the Conservatives would lose here anytime soon.

But all that changed last year. In March 2023, Brady announced plans to step down at the next election and the party currently lies in turmoil. A wave of scandals brought down Boris Johnson; Liz Truss tanked the mortgage market and lasted less time as Prime Minister than anyone before her; and Rishi Sunak is enduring life with a divided party and disastrous polling.

For the first time, forecasters have been predicting a Labour win here. In its most recent prediction, the Electoral Calculus gave Labour an 89% chance of winning the vote, while The Polling Report predicted it will claim more than 50% of votes while taking the seat.

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A Labour breakthrough?

But with Brady leaving and Labour’s first choice dropping out, what next for Altrincham and Sale West. If you wanted an indication of how winnable the seat is thought to be, just look at the fact that both Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer have visited this year.

Nick Matthews is the local democracy reporter for Manchester Evening News and responsible for covering Trafford. He said Brady is a well liked MP locally but believes this could be the election where Labour breaks through.

Speaking to The Altrincham & Sale Lead before Cllr Hartley’s announcement, he said: “At the last election, Graham Brady won but it was down to about 6,000 votes and he dropped about 3%. Based on the way the opinion polls are at the moment, it’s not unimaginable for Labour to win.”

There is also a sense that tactical voting could be important in areas such as Trafford, where Nick says there “tends to be a lot of agreement” between the Greens and Labour, particularly on issues such as active travel.

Cllr Hartley was chosen as the Labour candidate in 2023 and was tipped by many to be the party’s first ever winner here. In 2019, he became the first ever Labour councillor elected to represent Ashton upon Mersey ward on Trafford Council.

A qualified Solicitor Advocate, he currently works full-time as Principal Legal Adviser at a healthcare regulator and said his priorities for the area included supporting communities through the cost of living crisis, ensuring better access to Trafford schools, and ending long waits for mental health support.

As you might expect from any Labour candidate, Cllr Hartley said change is needed in the constituency. In a video released during the campaign he said: “We’ve been badly let down by the Conservatives. Their management of the economy has been a disaster for working families and plunged more children into poverty.

“Across our constituency, people are telling me they feel worse off than they did 14 years ago. Nothing seems to work anymore.”

Cllr Hartley had also been critical of Sir Graham for not speaking in Parliament on a regular basis. “This isn’t what we were promised,” he said, adding: “We deserve so much better.”

But he is no longer the person hoping to bring that change. After his announcement dropped on Friday, a party spokesperson told The Lead: “Ben has led a strong campaign in Altrincham and Sale West. Over the past year, our local activists have spoken to thousands of residents. There is a clear appetite for change in Altrincham and Sale West and residents are looking to Labour to deliver that change.”

Behind the scenes, movements are now being made to choose a replacement. Under the system which has become commonplace under Starmer, the shortlist of candidates is chosen by a panel comprising national and regional executive committee members, rather than simply the local party. They will need to choose quickly following Sunak's announcement.
 

The new Graham Brady?

Hoping to continue the Conservative dominance is a fellow legal professional. Oliver Carroll was raised in the area and studied at Oxford University before forging a career as an international lawyer and solicitor-advocate, being instructed by business giants and governments.

Carroll says his priorities include increasing the number of school places to relieve huge existing pressure; protecting the countryside and local environment; and campaigning to re-open the minor injuries unit.

At around half of Brady’s age but similar to which the current MP was elected, he believes he is ready to replace him. Speaking about Brady, Carroll described him as a ‘towering figure’ who is ‘overdue a well deserved rest’.

He told The Altrincham & Sale Lead: “He’s certainly got a national profile. I’ve known him for quite a few years through the Conservative Party but I’ve grown up here and always known him. He’s seen as a good constituency MP who is actually quite unassuming. The amount of problems he’s solved for people over the years is unreal.

Carroll added: “There is a desire that I detect locally for a new generation of people to come along and when I speak to him, he sees that. I’m very comfortable to be seen as a change.”

While he admits standing to replace such a well known figure after such a long time and doing so when he is expected to lose comes with a lot of pressure, he said he doesn’t accept Labour victory is inevitable at local or national level. Indeed, he said he has picked up on complacency from the party and believes this could hurt it.

He said: “There’s a swagger about Labour that people don’t like. When I knock on doors, I can count on the two hands the number of people who said they voted for Conservative and they’ll swap to Labour this time.

“It’s not like in 1997 when there was excitement for Tony Blair. People may say they’re fed up or frustrated but not excited for Labour. There’s no affection for Keir Starmer, there’s definitely no affection for Angela Raynor.”

Carroll challenged the methodology used in the surveys and polling suggesting his defeat is overwhelmingly likely, insisting those in the community continue to say they’ll vote Conservative. Insisting the seat is winnable, he said: “It’s my home town and I’m not going to let it go to bloody Labour without a fight.”

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