Teesside's so-called Red Wall predicted to be 'substantially rebuilt' in general election

There are seven seats in play in Teesside, relatively unchanged in last year’s major boundary reorganisation, although some have been renamed. The big change has been the abolition of Sedgefield, Tony Blair’s old constituency, which has been portioned off to neighbouring constituencies. Seats are: Darlington, Hartlepool, Middlesbrough and South and East Cleveland, Middlesbrough and Thornaby East, Redcar, Stockton North, and Stockton West.

Demographically, they vary considerably. Middlesbrough and Thornaby East has the highest level of child poverty of any North East constituency, according to the North East Child Poverty Commission. At 74.6%, its White British population is close to the national average, making it more diverse than the constituencies around it.

Darlington, by contrast, is among the least deprived of North East areas – although it is still the 37th most deprived local area in the country. At 32.2%, the proportion of homes owned outright is close to the UK average. Some 89.9% of Darlington is White British.

The Conservatives made big inroads into Labour’s Red Wall in the 2019 general election, leaving the party with five out of seven MPs: Peter Gibson in Darlington, Jill Mortimer (Hartlepool), Simon Clarke (Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland), Matt Vickers (Stockton South) and Jacob Young (Redcar). 

Labour retained Andy McDonald in Middlesbrough – now Middlesbrough and Thornaby East – and Alex Cunningham (Stockton North), who is now standing down.

The Liberal Democrats and Green Party have candidates in all seven seats while Reform UK is contesting six. There are two candidates from the Social Democratic Party.

Candidates for Middlesbrough and Thornaby East

Mehmoona Ameen - Workers Party of Britain

“I’ve spent most of my life in Middlesbrough and understand the needs of the people and the challenges we face in Middlesbrough and Thornaby,” says Ameen, whose father was laid off from British Steel in the 1980s.

Ameen joined the army after university, “because I wanted to protect my county”. She says the cost of living crisis is getting worse, and child poverty in parts of the constituency are “astounding”, while Labour and Conservatives spend tax money supporting foreign governments and wars.

“I want to make British politics work for the people of Britain.”

Mark Baxtrem - Independent

Mark Baxtrem has worked in environmental engineering and was a shopfloor trade union and a volunteer fireman.

He says: “I seek to represent the town of my birth in the UK parliament to fully and earnestly represent the needs and views of my town at the highest level.”

If elected, he says he will draw only an average wage for Middlesbrough.

“I will not personally benefit from an MP's salary – I shall live on what you live on…

“The remainder of their ‘dirty money’ can go to our churches, mosques and genuine local Charities.”

Kiran Fothergill - Conservative

Local businessman who says Middlesbrough’s high streets deserve investment in order to thrive again.

Kiran Fothergill, a director at Stockton-based family-owned firm Pickering Lifts, believes “Labour have taken this area for granted for too long”.

Launch his candidacy, he promised, if elected, “to bring energy and investment back to our town centres, ensuring they become bustling hubs of activity that benefit residents and businesses alike”.

He said Conservatives had led investment in Teesside, into the airport and the freeport, and its Conservative MPs “shout for our area on the national stage”.

Matthew Harris - Green

Matthew Harris is a self-employed director of a consultancy that advises on refitting old buildings, making them more user friendly, energy efficient and sustainable.

He says it’s important that Middlesbrough’s growing university, technology industry and port should be as environmentally-friendly as possible. “Having more Green politicians in the area will make sure they have the support they need,” whilst “increasing good jobs in the region”.

He adds that it is “vital” that there are enough schools, dentists and doctors to support the growing number of people for these growing sectors.

Andy McDonald - Labour

Long-time Labour activist Andy McDonald was first elected as MP for Middlesbrough in 2012, sitting as an independent from October last year to March this year after having the whip suspended because he used the phrase “between the river and the sea” at a pro-Palestine rally.

He had the whip restored after being cleared by a party investigation but promised not to use the phrase again.

Before becoming an MP, McDonald was a lawyer at Thompsons Solicitors, which has links to the trade union movement. He led a regional serious injury unit and was head of military claims.

Patrick Seargeant - Reform UK

Twenty-five-year-old Patrick Seargeant was born in Middlesbrough and has since “spent my entire life experiencing the slow, painful decline of both my country and my hometown at the hands of successive corrupt, incompetent and malevolent administrations”.

He has an engineering degree from Durham University and a postgraduate certificate of education, and works as a self-employed professional tutor.

He voted Conservative in 2019’s general election, “only to be cruelly reminded of the treachery of that malicious organisation”, and now says there is “no reason why Middlesbrough could not have its own Regent Street”.

Mo Waqas - Liberal Democrat

Local campaigner Mo Waqas was chosen as the Lib Dem candidate in January. He lives and works in Stockton, now in the social care industry, having previously been a prison officer.

He says the constituency deserves an MP who is focused on the community, “not one who is too busy with political games in Westminster”, and a colleague has praised his opposition to “Labour neglect and wasteful spending in our area”.

The Conservatives, believes Waqas, are more concerned with making news headlines than making the “changes local people need”.

Candidates for Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland

Simon Clarke - Conservative

Sir Simon Clarke won his seat from Labour in 2017 after sitting MP Tom Blenkinsop chose not to stand again.

Clarke went on to be Exchequer Secretary to the Treasury, a local government minister and Chief Secretary to the Treasury in Boris Johnson’s government. Liz Truss appointed him Secretary of State for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities .

Born in Stockton-on-Tees, ardent Brexiteer Clarke wants to build a “thriving local economy by capitalising on Teesworks and the Freeport, supporting green industries, and improving living standards”.

Jemma Joy - Liberal Democrat

Jemma Clarke grew up in Marske, moving to Skinningrove in her teens and settling in Guisborough close to the coast.

“We are incredibly lucky to have this but we need to protect it,” she says.

She has campaigned against sewage spills by water companies, saying: “We want to see a tougher water regulator, an end to bonuses for polluting water company bosses and stronger protections for our local environment.”

Last year Joy, who represents the Hutton Ward on Redcar and Cleveland Borough Council, said an old social media post referring to people in Skinningrove as in-bred was “sarcasm”.

Rod Liddle - Social Democratic Party

The controversial journalist Rod Liddle lives in Saltburn and is standing for the Social Democratic Party, which describes itself as a “patriotic, economically left leaning and culturally traditional party”. It has roots in the SDP formed in 1981 but was recreated by activists after the original body was dissolved.

The associate editor of Spectator magazine, Liddle calls for investment in the North, higher taxation and nationalisation of utilities and rail, but also cuts in migration and support for the “traditional family”.

Rowan McLaughlin - Green

Rowan McLaughlin lives and works in East Cleveland. Their business Wildthings Saltburn provides environmental and community arts workshops to people in Middlesbrough and East Cleveland.

McLaughlin is also a director of Saltburn Community Response, part of the Stop Incineration Northeast campaign and project co-coordinator of the Library of Things Saltburn.

Local Green priorities include environmental issues such as river pollution, the die-off of marine life and protecting trees.

McLaughlin also campaigned against a new car park on Saltburn promenade.

Luke Myer - Labour

Middlesbrough-born Luke Myer was a teacher before becoming a researcher with the left- leaning IPPR North think tank.

He stepped down as cabinet member for children on Redcar and Cleveland Borough Council when he was selected as Labour’s parliamentary candidate in December last year.

His priorities include tackling child poverty, and he says as MP he would “fight for better support for childcare and the early years, decent wages and lower bills”.

He also supports moves to keep Teesside positioned as the “industrial heart of the green jobs of the future”.

Candidates for Hartlepool

Jonathan Brash - Labour

Jonathan Brash has been a local councillor for over a decade. He was a teacher and is owner of local business Waterbabies, which runs baby swimming lessons.

He has been critical of levelling-up spending, particularly when public money was used to develop a hotel when an education college, “our crown in terms of education and skills”, had its funding cut.

He told Labour List the government was “handing over huge wads of cash to rich private developers so they can make more money themselves… that’s levelling up as far as the Conservatives are concerned.”

Tommy Dudley - Workers Party of Britain

London-born former railway man and bus driver who says he struggled to get jobs because of whistleblowing on health and safety.

Tommy Dudley has previously stood as an independent in the local elections in Headland and Harbour ward.

He was prompted to stand this year because of the situation in Gaza and claims a commitment to the principles of “social justice, workers’ rights, and public ownership, which are at the heart of our party’s 10-point plan”.

Sam Lee - Independent

If elected, Sam Lee, former local journalist and founder of the Headland Coffee Wagon, would introduce a mobile voting app for direct democracy, “which allows you to tell me how you want me to vote on certain issues”.

She would set up a medical scholarship scheme to fund one doctor, one vet and one dentist each year, who in return would work for Hartlepool for a minimum of 10 years.

She would “get a grip on immigration in this town and demand answers on who is coming in, and what infrastructure we have to cope”.

Peter Maughan - Lib Dem

Peter Maughan is a longstanding councillor in Gateshead who stood in the North Durham constituency in the 2015 general election, Jarrow in 2017 and again in North Durham in 2019.

Maughan is advocating a manifesto that includes a £9 billion plan to rescue the NHS, which the party claims is the boldest of any on offer. It includes free social care and would be paid for by reversing a tax cut given to the big banks and closing the loopholes on capital gains tax.

Jill Mortimer - Conservative

The 2021 Hartlepool by-election brought Jill Mortimer to the Commons. Born in Leeds, she was a farmer who trained to be a barrister, and served as a district councillor in Hambleton before becoming an MP.

At the time she referred to Hartlepool once being a “boom town” that “needs switching on again”.

For her campaign this year, Mortimer says she’s focused on securing extra investment for the town and ensuring a long-term future for Hartlepool’s nuclear plant, where the existing reactors are due to shut in 2026.

Amanda Napper - Reform UK

Amanda Napper says she has met lots of disillusioned lifelong Tory voters and former Labour voters on the doorstep who say they are backing her because Britain is broken.

She criticises the Tories for having “abandoned Brexit” and for allowing immigration to rise. Napper stood in the local elections in May for Hartlepool Borough Council, when she promised she would oppose council tax rises if elected and “cut non-essential spending”.

She has a degree in civil engineering and homeschooled her daughter, who has autism.

Vivienne Neville - Heritage Party

A teacher who grew up in Hartlepool. The Heritage Party was formed in 2020 by former London Assembly member David Kurten after he left Ukip and is putting up 41 candidates in this year’s general election.

They are standing on a platform they claim is “social conservatism”. The party’s manifesto talks of low immigration, pulling the country out of international – or “globalist” – institutions, including the European Court of Human Rights and the Worlds Health Organisation, and introducing “Hungarian-style” legislation to prevent the promotion of LGBT rights.

Jeremy Spyby-Steanson - Green

“Society is very divided, but we are united in ways we don’t realise, like the environments we share and the air we breathe,” says Jeremy Spyby-Steanson, a technology strategist with a financial services firm.

“Recent political scandals have proven just how much our system is in desperate need of change.”

Spyby-Steanson, who stood last year in local elections for Medway Council in Kent, will be hoping the presence of 19 councillors from his party in the North East will strengthen his campaign.

Candidates for Darlington

Peter Gibson - Conservative

The last parliament’s MP for Darlington, local solicitor Peter Gibson was born in Middlesbrough and raised in Redcar and Saltburn, the son of an NHS midwife and a shipwright who worked at Smiths Dock. 

He claims levelling up has brought new jobs, training opportunities and infrastructure to the area and that new nuclear, offshore wind, solar, and carbon capture and storage investment has put Teesside at the forefront of the UK being one of the “fastest decarbonising major economies in the world”.

Lola McEvoy - Labour

From Darlington, Lola McEvoy’s mother was a teacher, while her dad worked at North Tees Hospital.

With a degree in broadcast journalism from Newcastle University, she was a communications and campaigns manager for the Living Wage Foundation and then GMB union organiser. She was selected as Labour’s Darlington candidate in 2022.

Launching her campaign, McEvoy said she would champion workers’ rights and mental health services.

“There are too many of us facing the brink of crisis point and if we win I will be a champion for public money for social good.”

Matthew Snedker - Green

Matthew Snedker was elected to Darlington Borough Council, for the College ward, in 2019. 

He’s one of seven Green councillors in Darlington, and was selected as the party’s parliamentary candidate last year.

He was a manager at Homes Retail Group before becoming a campaigns manager for Friends of the Earth. He’s the chair of Darlington Credit Union. He talks of a “double crisis” in the country – for climate and democracy - and says the Green Party manifesto’s policies to invest in filling teachers’ vacancies and retain unspent apprenticeship levy in the North East will benefit young people.

Simon Thorley - Liberal Democrat

Darlington born and bred, Simon Thorley studied Mandarin and taught English in Taiwan before becoming CEO of InTuition Languages, a language training business, in London. He relocated the business to Darlington in 2020.

He was the Lib Dem candidate for the Tees Valley mayoral election in May, coming third with 7,679 votes. He says the Lib Dems would lift the two-child cap on child benefit.

“Child poverty has risen again in the Tees Valley, and the two child cap on child benefit is directly to blame. It’s cruel, arbitrary and deeply unfair on the most vulnerable.”

Michael Walker - Reform UK

Another candidate with roots in the area, Michael Walker is a teacher who has lived and worked in the US, Kazakhstan and South Korea.

“Record mass immigration has damaged our country,” says his party’s manifesto, which is also critical of multiculturalism.

He says: “I’ve decided to stand in this election because the country we love is in a mess and it is in a mess because of the decisions Labour and the Conservatives have made over the last 30 years.

“It doesn’t have to be this way. At this election you finally have a choice.”

Candidates for Stockton North

Jo Barton - Liberal Democrat

A former Southport councillor who stood for her party in South Ribble in the 2019 general election, Jo Barton is challenging for a seat that’s remained Labour even while the rest of the Red Wall fell.

Born in Chorley, Lancashire, she’s expressed her commitment to preventing the NHS being sold off to the highest bidder.

She first became a councillor in North Devon, where she lived for 10 years before returning to the North, and believes in a “strong, fair society where everyone has the right to be treated equally regardless of race, gender or background”.

Sam Bradford - Green

“While other parties may take the North East for granted or view places like Stockton as lesser, I believe the Green Party is in a position to properly represent local people,” says Sam Bradford, who grew up and lives in a local supermarket.

With 19 councillors now in the North East, he insists the Greens are gaining momentum in the region. He adds: “As a young person I hope to be able to engage with an important demographic that is often overlooked in politics. Young people will inevitably face the most consequences of climate change.”

Niall Innes - Conservative

Niall Innes is a local councillor in Stockton-on-Tees who was appointed parliamentary candidate last year.

A law graduate from Teesside University, he’s taking heart from Alex Cunningham’s majority of only 1,027 in 2019. Last year Innes criticised Home Secretary James Cleverly for using unparliamentary language about his chosen constituency.

When Cleverly was accused of calling Stockton a “shithole”, Innes responded that the comments were “offensive” and “disgraceful”.

He told the Northern Echo last year that Labour politicians who said he didn’t know the area were themselves unaware “of the issues we face locally in Stockton or our recent history”.

John McDermottroe - Reform UK

Born in Middlesbrough, John McDermottroe has lived most of his life in Billingham, and worked for Nitram Plants before starting up his own business.

He had little interest in politics until the EU referendum, when he was “deeply concerned about the loss of democracy in this country”. Earlier this year Byline Times reported that he shared Facebook posts about a “climate hoax”.

He has questioned the continued availability of levelling-up funding for Billingham after the council failed in a bid to acquire tracts of land there.

Chris McDonald - Labour

With a background in steel industry management, Hartlepool-born Chris McDonald is just the sort of candidate Rachel Reeves will value for her often-repeated mission to grow the economy. 

Most recently he led the Materials Processing Institute, the innovation centre for metal and steels.

McDonald was selected last year as Labour’s candidate to replace Alex Cunningham, who has stepped down after holding the seat since 2010. A broken NHS and limited access to the NHS have “left our community struggling”, he says.

“I’ll fight for our local hospital and tackle child poverty head on.”

Candidates for Redcar

Gary Conlin - Social Democratic Party

Once an army man and now a truck driver, Gary Conlin believes the Social Democratic Party’s mix of left-leaning economics and social conservatism sits right for the working man.

From Redcar, he says improving transport is key for the area, particularly buses, which don’t serve people with jobs and appointments to get to. 

The SDP’s manifesto combines a call for an end to “mass immigration” – with withdrawal from the UN Refugee Convention and European Convention on Human Rights – with renationalisation of the railways and social housing building.

John Davies - Reform UK

John Davies, the son of a British Steel worker father and a care worker mother, refers to the “chaos and disaster” of the main parties’ control in the area.

“If we want to change things in a radically different way then it is time to vote for a radically different alternative,” he says. “Up until now there has been a very poor choice on the ballot paper.”

Reform’s electoral programme includes ending the commitment to net zero, in a region where investment in clean energy is seen as an important advantage.

Ruth Hatton - Green

The Green Party didn’t put up a candidate in the last general election. Ruth Hatton will have a challenge on her hands but could pick up votes if left-leaning constituents want to register a protest.

With the energy industry such a priority for Teesside, Hatton will have a view on whether carbon capture and nuclear technologies are a way to net zero. This isn’t natural Green territory but after this year’s local elections the party had reached a high of 812 on 174 councils nationally.

Locally the Greens want a moratorium on the building of new waste incineration plants.

Chris Jones - Liberal Democrat

Has sat on Redcar and Cleveland Council since 2015, and also stood to be police and crime commissioner.

Chris Jones says people in the constituency want a change after 14 years of austerity. He has expressed regret for once voting for Conservative mayor Ben Houchen.

The Lib Dems have a plan for saving the NHS and cutting the cost of living, he believes.He would champion a “fair deal” for Redcar and Cleveland.

“The Conservatives could not have made a bigger mess of running the country if they had tried. But Labour is not offering any real alternative.”

Anna Turley - Labour

Anna Turley was the constituency’s MP from 2015, losing to Jacob Young in 2019. She was a Home Office civil servant and then a special adviser to Labour ministers David Blunkett and Hilary Armstrong. Later she was a senior research fellow at the IPPR North think tank.

Turley was instrumental in setting up a taskforce in response to the closure of Teesside Steelworks, and was appointed a shadow minister by Jeremy Corbyn, but resigned before his second leadership contest, and later blamed him for losing her seat.

Jacob Young - Conservative

Elected in 2019 at the age of 26, Jacob Young became the youngest male MP in the Commons after working in the Teesside chemicals industry.

He resigned as a levelling-up minister in 2022 in protest against Boris Johnson, saying he’d “agonised” over the decision.

Last year he was praised by Houchen for his role in securing government funding for Redcar regeneration, and was reappointed to a levelling-up ministerial job by Rishi Sunak, whose leadership bid he endorsed, in September. He is defending a majority of 3,527.

Candidates for Stockton West

Nigel Boddy - Liberal Democrat

Former Darlington councillor and police and crime commissioner candidate Nigel Boddy was chosen as the Lib Dems’ candidate in April. Boddy was a civil servant before qualifying as a lawyer as a mature student and working in the legal aid system.

He challenged Peter Mandelson for his Hartlepool seat as far back as 2001.

Three of his brothers are defence lawyers as well, and another became a police officer, so a priority is a better managed and more efficient criminal justice system at a time when the prisons are full.

Monty Brack - Independents for Direct Democracy

Do your politicians “ignore you and never ask” what your priorities are, asks Monty Brack’s party Independents for Direct Democracy. “Probably not, it’s not in their GNA,” it says, somewhat puzzlingly, in a Facebook presentation.

Monty Brack is from Darlington, and studied at the Open University. He sits on Middleton St George Parish Council.

The party’s solution is referendums on all policies people consider to be important, stronger powers of recall of representatives who ignore the will of their voters, and allowing any voter to propose national and local policies.

Vivek Chhabra - Independent

Vivek Chhabra is an A&E consultant and yoga teacher who trained with the Indian Army and has also worked in Australia. He worked at Darlington Memorial Hospital through the Covid pandemic.

His focus is unsurprisingly the NHS. He wants “hospital at home” services for all medical specialities, freeing up acute beds, and more dental surgeries and GPs for Yarm.

He opposes Labour’s plan to end the VAT exemption on private school fees and wants an upgrade for Yarm train station and a direct link to London.

Joe Dancey - Labour

Political consultant Joe Dancey became Labour’s candidate for Stockton West last year. Growing up in Eaglescliffe, his father was a chemical engineer and his mother a nurse.

Dancey worked for Lord Sebastian Coe on the London 2012 Olympic Games and now claims to have helped business and industry in Teesside “secure millions of pounds of private and public investment for new jobs and innovation”.

The partner of Labour shadow health secretary Wes Streeting, Dancey’s priorities include recruiting new specialist teachers, free primary school breakfast clubs and expanding renewable and new nuclear power.

Steve Matthews - Reform UK

Steve Matthews’ family is from County Durham and he lives in Stockton. He was a soldier in the Royal Army Medical Corps, with a final posting to Catterick Garrison, and then a Cleveland police officer.

He has also been a district councillor and a member of the Cleveland Fire Authority.

At a BBC hustings on 18 June, he said immigration was the “elephant in the room” and said no one understood what levelling up means.

He said no other parties understood the reality of beat policing.

Niko Omilana - Independent

The name “Niko Omilana” is reported to appear on 11 different constituencies across the country, including Stockton West. It’s an offence for someone to stand in more than one constituency but it could be that a number of people are standing using the same name.

YouTube prankster Niko Omilana ran in the 2021 London mayoral election and was placed fifth, with nearly 50,000 votes. According to one of his videos he now wants to “run for prime minister”.

Police have said they are aware of “a potential electoral matter”.

Anna-Maria Toms - Green

One of seven Green Party councillors in Darlington, Anna-Maria Toms, elected last year, is a full-time unpaid carer and artist, and a mother of six.

“We all need a greener future,” she says. “I am nearly half a century old and began campaigning as a teenager, recycling cans and papers at the supermarket.

“We should be future planning for our great grandchildren and ensuring that we do not jump from crisis to crisis without a comprehensive understanding of the earth and nature and the impact of our actions now.”

Matt Vickers - Conservative

Previously a manager at Woolworths and Home Bargains, elected MP for Stockton South in 2019, when he beat Labour’s Paul Williams.

In 2022, Matt Vickers was made deputy chairman of the Conservative Party but attacked his own party earlier in this campaign for failing to deliver a new British bill of rights that would allow the government to override the European Convention on Human Rights and start deportation flights to Rwanda.

In a campaign video he talked of his support from Tees Valley mayor Ben Houchen. “Full steam ahead, getting on with it, backed by Ben – and we’re going to win.”

Mohammed Zaroof - Independent

Mohammed Zaroof is one of four brothers born in Stockton who were behind the well-known Tees Valley Cabs, which they ran for 30 years before selling out in 2022. 

They said they decided to sell after the deaths of one of their brothers and their mother, in a statement talking about wanting to move on to “pastures new”. Zaroof has yet to detail his electoral pastures. 

Shortly before it was sold, Tees Valley Cabs expressed concern to the council about the cost of applying for driver licenses and the presence in Stockton of drivers licensed elsewhere.

Predictions

Polling firm YouGov has Labour down to win all of the Teesside seats, with a share of the vote ranging from 39% in Stockton West to 52% in Stockton North. Another polling firm, Electoral Calculus, gives Labour a percentage score of winning in six seats ranging from 74 to 100. The exception is Hartlepool, where Labour is still predicted to win, but only with a 56% chance.

“Those are big movements when you think about some of these seats,” says Stuart Wilks-Heeg, politics professor at Liverpool University. All the evidence suggests this Red Wall that crumbled in Teesside in 2019 is going to be substantially rebuilt.”

Analysis

Levelling Up is one of the policies that was supposed to reward Conservative voters in Teesside. In Darlington, there are efforts to drag Treasury civil servants out of London, and, launching his election campaign, MP Peter Gibson lauded government funding for its train station, Rail Heritage Quarter and northern bypass.

But last year in the Commons, he felt compelled to ask the Levelling Up minister Jacob Young for “advice” after Darlington missed out on three rounds of bids to the Levelling Up Fund for other schemes. Young, also MP for neighbouring Redcar, could advise little, other than to praise Gibson as an “amazing champion for Darlington”. It’s unlikely to save him, nor any of the other Conservative MPs. 

Labour, says Stuart Wilks-Heeg, politics professor at Liverpool University, has made a concerted policy pitch to Teesside voters, who strongly voted Leave in the EU referendum – when Gibson was a Remainer – and only temporarily signed up to Johnson’s agenda on Brexit, immigration and Levelling Up.

“Those are the voters Labour knows it needs to get back on board,” says Wilks-Heeg. 

“The loss of those voters and constituencies back in 2019 really did explain the size of the Conservative majority. A lot of them haven’t become permanent converts to the Conservative Party. What Labour has been trying to do, and it looks like very successfully, is to pull those people back to the Labour fold.”

The future of Hartlepool’s nuclear station is an important local issue. The current reactors are due to shut down in 2026 but Labour has backed new ones. Simon Clarke led a Conservative rebellion that forced Rishi Sunak to ease planning restrictions on onshore wind development.

Few candidates will not line up to pledge support for struggling local NHS services.

Voters are also concerned about poor transport links, particularly buses. But one of the starkest electoral issues is child poverty. In a new report produced for the election, the North East Child Poverty Commission links growing child poverty to the two-child cap on child benefit and the overall benefit cap.

But Labour has refused to end the child benefit cap. Middlesbrough and Thornaby East candidate Andy McDonald did not directly address the question in a statement responding to the report, saying only that “children and their families across the constituency have been absolutely failed by this Conservative government”.

Conservative MPs have been hoping to bask in the halo of Tees Valley mayor Ben Houchen, who was re-elected this year, although with a considerably reduced majority. Despite controversy over his business dealings, Houchen is popular for his jobs and investment record. But Rob Ford, political science professor and senior fellow at research organisation UK in a Changing Europe, says: “The Houchen effect didn’t spread beyond Houchen’s own personal re-election anyway and they lost councillors and the police and crime commissioner election.

“The swing against Houchen in the local elections would have been enough to take out all the Conservative Teesside MPs. With the best will in the world I don’t think Simon Clarke is anywhere near as loved as Ben Houchen.”

Added to the “cultural memory of being Labour” in Teesside, says Ford, is the problem of Sunak’s campaign – so poor that it could explain why Conservative MPs who heard his leadership pitch to them in private chose Liz Truss.

“If there’s anywhere in the country where the idea of Sunak being an out-of- touch globalised billionaire is going to play badly it’s going to be that part of the world,” Ford says.

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