Former Conservative Mark Logan isn’t defending Bolton North East, which he held since 2019 – but with a majority only in the hundreds. This key marginalt combines the town centre and surrounding wards with more affluent suburbs into a demographic that’s nearly bang on the national average on indicators like ethnic make-up and outright home ownership.
Conservative Peter Thurnham held the seat from 1983 before Sir David Crausby took it from him in Labour’s 1997 landslide. Crausby retained it beyond Labour’s governments, until 2019, but with a majority constantly dwindling away. Boundary reorganisations – the first since 2010 – mean the seat includes the wards of Ashley Bridge, Bradshaw, Breightmet, Bromley Cross, Halliwell, Little Lever and Darcy Lever, Queens
Park and Central, Smithills, and Tonge with the Haulgh. Little Lever and Darcy Lever came over from the former Bolton and South East seat. Former diplomat Logan dramatically announced he was switching his support to Labour on 30 May and said he would not be contesting his seat, calling for a new government with “renewed enthusiasm and optimism in both tone and in policy”.
Labour’s Yasmin Qureshi held the former Bolton South East seat - now Bolton South and Walkden - from 2010 until parliament was dissolved, and now contests this new seat that has Walkden added on. Walkden’s actually part of Salford.
Liverpool University politics professor Stuart Wilks-Heeg says the boundary reorganisation of last year “has produced some profound changes”. Bolton South and Walkden now takes in the Bolton wards of Farnworth, Great Lever, Harper Green, Kearsley and Rumworth, and the Salford wards Little Hulton, Walkden North and Walkden South.
There is a widespread feeling that Kearsley gets ignored by Farnworth, which gets ignored by Bolton, which in turn gets ignored by Manchester, and that has produced hyper-local parties that have succeeded electorally as well as succumbing to their own factionalism. There may be some in Walkden who even identify more closely with Manchester than Bolton.
It’s the least affluent of Bolton’s three seats. Qureshi’s share of the vote has see-sawed. She was elected with a swing against Labour, increased her share in 2015 and 2017, and lost votes in 2019. She is the only candidate from the last general election standing this year.
Chris Green is defending an 8,000-plus majority in Bolton West, which includes some of Bolton’s most afflu- ent areas, such as Heaton, and pockets of deprivation in Smithills and Rumworth. In demographic terms it has above average levels of outright home ownership and a greater proportion of White British people than average. Major reorganisation in 1983 brought the addition of most of Westhoughton, Atherton’s been in and out over the years.
Currently it comprises Heaton, Lostock and Chew Moor, Horwich North, Horwich South and Blackrod, Hulton (part), Smithills, Westhoughton North and Hunger Hill, Westhoughton South, and Rumworth (part).
Although characterised as a classic bellwether seat, it hasn’t always elected an MP in line with the government of the day.
It was Labour through the 1950s Conservative years, and Labour’s Julie Hilling won in 2010. But Bolton West’s still always been important to election watchers. Hilling’s victory came during a three-way marginal contest, while Green’s majorities in 2015 and 2017 were small – less than 1,000 votes. However, his majority rose in 2019. The Lib Dem candidate in 2015 and 2017 was Rebecca Forrest, standing this year in Bolton North East.
Candidates for Bolton North East
Hanif Alli - Green
With a background in youth and offender services, Hanif Alli became a Labour local councillor in 2002 before switching to the Greens earlier this year after expressing dismay at its stance on social justice, workers’ rights and Gaza.
Elected as the town’s first ever Green councillor in May, for the Halliwell ward, he told the Bolton News : “I feel that the new Labour Party, if you like, has moved way too right to be the Labour Party that I was part of.”
He’s a defender of the green belt and advocate of nationalising utilities.
Kevin Allsop - Independent
There is “virtually no difference” in the economic policies of the two largest parties, says Kevin Allsop.
“Both promise more austerity and hardship for working class people while the profits of energy companies and supermarkets continue to soar. In the meantime public services, including the NHS, continue to be underfunded, under-resourced and shunted towards private ownership.”
He calls for a “high wage, fair tax economy”, better training for people to get good jobs, the restoration of the NHS to its “former glory”, and “seriously setting about tackling climate change while there is still time to do so”.
Kirith Entwistle - Labour
One of a number of comms and public affairs professionals to be Labour candidates, Kirith Entwistle worked at press privacy campaign Hacked Off, the Royal British Legion, the Cabinet Office and loneliness charity WaveLength.
She’s spoken about her concerns over NHS waiting lists, antisocial behaviour, funding for schools, and sewage dumped into Bolton’s rivers.
She says she’s a working mum backing Labour’s plans for school-based nurseries. “I know how vital it is for parents to have the right support, making it easier to get back to work, and the security of knowing your child is getting the best start at a crucial developmental stage.”
Rebecca Forrest - Liberal Democrat
Former science teacher Rebecca Forrest was a Lib Dem candidate on the other side of town in the general elections of 2017 and 2019, in Bolton West, before trying her hand here.
Now working in medical communications, she says the current government is “out of touch, repeatedly failing to address basic needs and stumbling from one crisis to another – it’s time for a change”.
She says a vote for the Liberal Democrats is “a vote for fairness. It's a vote for a party that will defend our community and our health services.”
Trevor Jones - Reform UK
Self-employed builder who promises, if elected, to fight for the “rights, liberty and freedom to improve your standard of living” of his constituents.
He’s a co-founder of Bolton for Change, which jointly campaigns with Reform UK in the town, and insists he’s from Bolton, Lancashire, not Bolton, Greater Manchester.
He stood in local elections for Ukip and was Brexit Party candidate in the 2019 general election. Earlier this year he polled 827 votes in coming second to the Tonge with the Haulgh Labour candidate in the local elections.
Syeda Kazmi - Workers Party of Britain
Principles of social justice, workers’ rights and public ownership drive Syeda Kazmi, she says, and she opposes “imperialist wars” and interventions.
“My political journey is driven by the belief that key industries and services should be publicly owned and operated for the benefit of all, not just a select few.
“I am dedicated to fighting for decent housing for everyone, protecting our National Health Service, and ensuring fair wages and safe working conditions for all workers.”
John Partington - Independent
Previously an independent candidate in local elections, John Partington has a focus on reviving Bolton town centre, which he compares unfavourably with nearby Bury.
Born in Farnworth and raised on the Johnson Fold estate, he told the Bolton News: “There were eight brothers and sisters in a three-bedroom council house .
“I have worked at the Bolton Lads and Girls Cub.
“I started as a volunteer for about a year as I was finishing my qualification as a personal trainer so I got into working with young people by accident.”
Adele Warren - Conservative
Boltonian Adele Warren became a local councillor in 2018, for Breightmet, and was a cabinet member until the Conservatives lost control of the council last year.
Like Logan, she’d been critical of Boris Johnson over Partygate. In a throng of last-minute Conservative candidates confirmed for this year’s general election, she told her social media followers that, if snapped, the word “Bolton” would run through her. “The rest is up to you.”
Brought up in a council house and educated at the former Bolton Institute, she’s since been campaigning on local issues such as the state of cemeteries.
Candidates for Bolton South and Walkden
Don Prof Reis Abraham Halliwell Prf - Independent
Tried to stand as an independent in the Greater Manchester mayoral elections in May but his nomination was rejected because it didn’t contain enough supporting signatures.
He says he is campaigning for a “people’s dividend” and wants council tax reducing to zero by 2025. “Instead the council pays the public from profits – modern, new, fair system.”
Mohammed Afzal -Conservative
Businessman and veteran Conservative candidate, having stood unsuccessfully for the seats of Bradford West, Birmingham Yardley and Manchester Gorton since 2015.
Mohammed Afzal, who describes himself on X/Twitter as a “consultant criminal lawyer” and a director of Conservative Friends of Pakistan, was confirmed as the Conservative candidate for Bolton South and Walkden in November.
Gemma-Jane Bowker - Liberal Democrat
Has stood unsuccessfully for the Lib Dems in Welsh Assembly elections and in various Stockport wards since 2016, but was also a Powys country councillor in 2012-17.
Gemma-Jane Bowker has a PhD in drama and theatre studies, and works in marketing and communications.
Jack Khan - Workers Party of Britain
Former Labour councillor who resigned over the party’s stance on Gaza, Jack Khan describes himself as having a strong voice but being level headed. “I will scream the houses down for you people,” he tells the voters of Bolton South and Walkden.
His priorities are crime and safety, transport improvements and bringing investment to the area.
Philip Kochitty - Green
Stood unsuccessfully for the Greens in Farnworth North local elections.
Philip Kochitty is a former teacher and chair of Bolton community and pressure groups who calls for more social housing, free schools meals for all children and free breakfast clubs for primary school children.
His environmental priorities are cleaning up rivers, more green spaces and an end to mass concretisation to “preserve the water table in Bolton for the present and future generations”.
Julie Pattison - Reform UK
Worker in the care and charity sector who was a co-founder of Farnworth and Kearsley First. Julie Pattison says she has lived in Kearsley all her life and joined Reform UK in 2022 “out of sheer frustration over the treatment of our towns by the ruling parties.
We have had a Labour MP for 12 years and seen no improvement or fight.”
Yasmin Qureshi - Labour
MP for the seat previously known as Bolton South East since 2010, Yasmin Qureshi was a barrister before becoming a politician, and worked for the Crown Prosecution Service and the United Nations Mission in Kosovo.
Appointed last month to the Justice Select Committee, she has warned the justice system is “at breaking point”, with prisons full and court cases delayed.
Last November she resigned as shadow equalities minister to oppose the Labour leadership and vote for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza.
Candidates for Bolton West
Vicki Attenborough - Green
Vicki Attenborough was an NHS manager in Bolton and Manchester for 35 years and is now a self-employed management coach and mediator. She says she understands first hand what under-resourcing has done to health services.
With a Labour government imminent, she believes more Green MPs would be able to press it on climate change and the cost-of-living crisis as well as the NHS, “so that everybody in Bolton has the opportunity to make the best of their lives”.
Phil Brickell - Labour
Currently a councillor for the Baguley ward in Manchester, former NHS worker Phil Brickell describes himself as “Bolton-born and bred” and was selected as Labour’s candidate for Bolton West a year ago.
Brickell says he was the first in his family to go to university, having benefited from the Educational Maintenance Allowance, the Labour initiative scrapped by the incoming coalition government in 2010.
With a Labour government, “together we can tackle the cost-of-living crisis, ensure investment in our towns, fix rising crime and the address the NHS backlog”.
Dylan Evans - Reform UK
Describing himself as a “working-class lad from the North”, Dylan Evans joined Reform in 2022 because of the “Con-Lab uniparty’s disastrous handling of the pandemic”, whose effects are still being felt in Bolton, he says.
He’s critical of tax hikes, open borders, NHS failure, the housing crisis, rising crime and the “overwhelming feeling of our social fabric being ripped apart”.
He won 298 votes in the Farnworth North local election in May.
Chris Green - Conservative
An engineer in the mass spectrometry industry for nearly 20 years before being elected in 2015, Chris Green has been a member of a number of select committees, most recently health and social care, and has three times been a parliamentary private secretary.
He’s on the executive committee of the Northern Research Group of Tory MPs, once described by a commentator as a “party within a party”. The NRG was formed to demand more investment for the North, but expanded its remit and was vocal in arguing against Covid lockdowns.
Patrick McGrath - English Democrats
Patrick McGrath is one of a dozen or so candidates standing for the nationalist party in the general election. It calls for an “end to immigration now” and an English parliament.
McGrath also appears on the website of Patriotic Alternative as one of four candidates it has put forward as a coalition with the English Democrats. Patriotic Alternative has organised anti-migrant demonstrations and leafleting, and is described by Hope Not Hate as the “largest fascist organisation in the UK”.
Donald Macintosh - Liberal Democrat
Accountant and businessman Donald Macintosh says he has seen the “systematic dismantlement of the UK economy by the Conservatives”, and has a personal motive for standing too – his mother lay dying in hospital during the Covid pandemic while Boris Johnson was partying.
He calls for a social framework in which “every member of society can reach their potential”, including a safety net for those who can’t.
He wants to tackle polluting water companies and says too much power is centralised in Westminster over schools and planning. Another objective is to become “the most popular Donald in politics”.
Predictions
Logan held a majority of only 378 in Bolton North East and Warren is highly unlikely to defend it. YouGov predicts Labour will win 49% of the votes in Bolton North East, with the Conservatives on 21%. Reform UK is on 20%. Electoral Calculus gives Entwistle a 95% chance of winning, on a predicted turnout of 59.9%.
YouGov’s MRP predicts Qureshi to win 58% of the vote in Bolton South and Walkden. The Conservatives, on 9%, with Reform outstripping them at 20%. The Greens are ahead of the Lib Dems. Over at Electoral Calculus, there’s a 100% chance of a Labour win on a low predicted turnout – 53.1%.
Bolton West is the Conservatives’ most secure seat in Greater Manchester – even more than Altrincham and Sale West – but YouGov still has them down to lose. It predicts Labour to win with 40% of the vote, with the Tories second on 29%. Electoral Calculus says Labour has an 89% chance of winning.
Analysis
Logan’s defection to Labour in Bolton North East was a shock but there had been tremors. He was hardly alone in resigning as a parliamentary private secretary in 2022 in protest at Boris Johnson’s behaviour but he was unusual in breaking ranks with his party in February this year and calling for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza.
His defection to Labour, which he praised for having moved to “centrist politics”, drew a savage response from Conservative head office, with a spokesperson saying: “Much of the association wanted him deselected for inactivity and his failure to be present in Bolton for extended periods of time. And he’s been asking No 10 for a peerage.”
But Entwistle’s candidacy, confirmed in February last year, has been controversial too. Local party members, including its chair, protested that she was being parachuted in. “Yet again, it appears that the Labour Party is seeking to promote the views and attitudes of a clique in London, rather than local members in the North,” they wrote in a statement. “This goes against the attitude necessary to win back the Red Wall, which is desperately needed to deliver a Labour government.”
In response Labour’s National Executive Committee suspended the local leadership team and put in place its own campaign team. This probably won’t put Entwistle’s victory in doubt. Whether it deters some potential Labour voters remains to be seen.
In Bolton South and Walkden, trains from Kearsley and Farnsworth to Manchester are so poor they even attracted the interest of Radio 4’s Today programme the other day, with a train being cancelled almost as Nick Robinson spoke. Transport improvements are high on the list of concerns among Bolton South and Farnworth voters, along with housing.
More than 20,000 people are on the council’s waiting list for a home, and rents have been rising fast. The benefits of Greater Manchester’s nationalised bus service have started to be felt but they are hoping for more, including a tram service.
What Qureshi can promise them is less clear. As the Bolton-born writer and transport expert Paul Salveson has pointed out, the Labour manifesto doesn’t offer much on transport. “There is very little specifically on rail, other than ‘taking the railways back into public ownership’.
In fact, most of it is already,” says Salveson, although he does acknowledge the manifesto’s commitment to giving elected mayors to create “unified and integrated transport networks”.
Although Qureshi’s victory isn’t in doubt, the election will be a chance to assess whether her party might lose votes to the left.
Chris Green, in Bolton West, won’t have done himself any favours with many of his constituents when he voted not to criminalise pollution of water companies last month. Rivers Trust figures suggest that United Utilities pumped sewage into Bolton West waterways for 6,100 continuous hours in 2023.
Green insists he’s defended his constituents on other matters, opposing inappropriate development.
“There is a need for new housing but not at the expense of our green spaces and this is why I have always championed a brownfield first approach, which I am pleased that the government has supported Bolton Council to deliver,” he says.
House building also creates strain on local roads, he says, requiring him to fight for investment:
“I secured £12 million to build a link road for the Horwich Loco Works development and have been battling with Bolton Council for the new road at Chequerbent roundabout from the Bluebell Walk development to be opened and a Westhoughton bypass to be built.
“I will continue to work with local residents to deliver more investment in local services to deliver the school places and GP appointments that these new houses bring.”
A local track record is highly unlikely to be enough, given the national mood towards the Tories. Green’s majority of 8,555 might once have seemed a target he could at least defend, but no more.
“That’s a nine point swing Labour need but right now the polling is pointing to a 15-16 point swing,” says Rob Ford, political science professor and senior fellow at research organisation UK in a Changing Europe. “I can’t see them holding on there. Nothing’s safe now. We’re not just talking about marginal seats. The frontline now is seats that have been Tory for 70 years.”
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